DO YOU WANT TO REDUCE US IMPORTS OF CRUDE OIL ?

WE HAVE THE NATURAL RESOURCES TO DO IT BUT DO WE HAVE THE POLITICAL WILL?

Reduce Crude Imports

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IN THE 1960's THE RUSSIAN SPUTNIK CAUSED THEN PRESIDENT KENNEDY TO ANNOUNCE A NATIONAL OBJECTIVE OF "TO THE MOON BY THE END OF THE DECADE".

911 SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE WAKE UP CALL TO THE US FOR A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY TO REDUCE OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN CRUDE BY THE END OF THIS DECADE.

The National Defense Council Foundation, the DOE, numerous other agencies and organizations have calculated the "real" cost of imported crude oil.  Their estimates range from an additional 25¢ to $2.00/gallon at the pump.  Some refer to this hidden cost as a "Security Cost".  Using the DOE estimate of 50¢/gal and the generally accepted EIA number of 12 million barrels per day of U.S. transport gasoline and diesel sales (over 500 million gallons per day), the American economy is paying over $90 billion per year to support our current energy policy.

Let's assume that this number is too high, so we only pay $20 billion per year.  What would $20 billion per year buy the U.S. in the form of domestic produced synthetic motor fuels from coal and bio-mass?  Coal based synthetic fuel plants (CTL) have been in operation since the 1960's; natural gas based synthetic motor fuel plants (GTL) since the 1990's and bio-mass/bio-renewable based synthetic motor fuels (BTL) since 1998. 

Crude oil refineries cost approximately $25,000 per installed barrel of output; although we haven't built a new refinery in the US since the 1970's and crude refineries don't make ultra clean fuels like F-T does.  A new crude oil refinery would not reduce imports but it would address another "cost" Americans pay each year - the run up in price at the pump each driving season by the
Big Petroleum companies to create economic conservation.  This cost, "refinery penalty" estimated to be $12 billion per year goes directly to the refiners profits.

Generally speaking an "alternative fuel" or synthetic fuel plant costs from 1.5 to 6 times more than a crude oil plant but the raw material or feed stock (coal or bio-mass) costs less than crude oil on an energy basis.  World scale GTL plants under construction in Qatar cost approximately $25,000 per installed barrel.  CTL plants built 40 years ago cost $45,000 + per installed barrel but advances in technology and efficiencies have kept these costs to approximately $55,000 per installed barrel, today to be conservative we will use $60,000.  BTL plants because of the economics of delivering bio-mass to a central location are smaller in size and cost between $75,000 to $100,000 per installed barrel of capacity.  Let's use $85,000 pre installed barrel.  BTL is at an economic disadvantage due to the smaller size of the BTL refinery but the feed stock is renewable and CO2 emission neutral. Once paid for, these alternative fuel plants (BTL and CTL F-T refineries) are competitive against $15-$20 crude oil.

So how much new "domestic refining" capacity or reduction in imported crude can you get from CTL and BTL plants if you spent $20 billion per year on them.  CTL, 333,000 barrels per day each year.  In 10 years that is 3.4 million barrels per day or as much crude that is imported from middle east countries, over $55 billion/yr in balance of payments reduction.  BTL, 235,000 barrels per day or 2.4 million barrels per day in 10 years; almost $40 billion per year in crude oil imports at $45/bbl.  What would these numbers look like if the "
security cost" is really $90 billion per year or if you use the NDCF number of $2.00/gallon or $300 billion per year.

We have the natural resources to do this, especially in western U.S., I just wonder if we have the political resolve to accomplish it. 

What better legacy for President Bush than to begin a long term program to reduce US dependence on foreign crude while at the same time creating millions of job opportunities for Americans - jobs that can not be outsourced to India.